Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
D+9.9
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Escalent | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Illinois Wesleyan University Department of Political Science | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Richard Day Research | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | D+10.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | KRC Research | D+12.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.3 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+16.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-31 | 802 | R+0.3 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-29 | 535 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Escalent | 2002-10-28 | 400 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-10-28 | 606 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2002-10-26 | 600 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-10-26 | 701 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| KRC Research | 2002-10-23 | 400 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 625 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 535 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Illinois Wesleyan University Department of Political Science | 2002-10-21 | 497 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Richard Day Research | 2002-10-20 | 800 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-08 | 802 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-08 | 535 | D+19.0 | 12 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-09-29 | 701 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-25 | 535 | D+19.0 | 12 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-18 | 800 | D+19.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-16 | 621 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-11 | 535 | D+24.0 | 17 |