Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
D+0.6
7 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | KRC Research | R+2.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | D+1.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Harvard University | D+2.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | 2002-11-03 | 500 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| KRC Research | 2002-11-01 | 400 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-10-31 | 465 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| KRC Research | 2002-10-29 | 400 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-10-26 | 465 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| Harvard University | 2002-10-26 | 400 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2002-10-21 | 500 | R+0.5 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-08 | 1001 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2002-10-05 | 500 | D+12.0 | 17 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-10-02 | 407 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Harvard University | 2002-10-01 | 666 | EVEN | 5 |
| KRC Research | 2002-09-25 | 400 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-09-18 | 419 | D+3.0 | 8 |