Actual result
R+3.9
Final polls said
R+1.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potomac Incorporated | R+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-01 | 797 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-29 | 625 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 2002-10-27 | 869 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-26 | 797 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2002-10-24 | 1529 | EVEN | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-19 | 797 | EVEN | 4 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2002-10-17 | 840 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-12 | 797 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-12 | 625 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-06 | 797 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 2002-09-26 | 869 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-15 | 797 | EVEN | 4 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2002-09-14 | 840 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-13 | 625 | R+3.0 | 1 |