Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+15.7
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Becker Institute | R+20.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | R+15.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+14.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | R+8.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Bannon Communications Research | R+8.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2002-11-02 | 600 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-11-01 | 642 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2002-10-29 | 933 | R+8.0 | 12 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-29 | 600 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-26 | 651 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| Becker Institute | 2002-10-22 | 401 | R+20.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-21 | 600 | R+19.0 | 1 |
| Bannon Communications Research | 2002-10-20 | 400 | R+8.0 | 12 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-15 | 600 | R+29.0 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-05 | 651 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-01 | 600 | R+29.0 | 9 |
| Bannon Communications Research | 2002-09-20 | 400 | EVEN | 20 |
| American Research Group | 2002-09-16 | 600 | R+25.0 | 5 |