Actual result
R+19.4
Final polls said
R+14.8
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | R+18.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Columbus Dispatch | R+18.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | R+14.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+12.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2002-11-01 | 666 | R+18.7 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-30 | 725 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2002-10-28 | 2048 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-25 | 602 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 800 | R+12.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-17 | 1312 | R+7.0 | 12 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2002-10-15 | 471 | R+16.0 | 3 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2002-10-01 | 1420 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-11 | 805 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2002-09-10 | 537 | R+18.0 | 1 |