Actual result
R+9.5
Final polls said
D+0.4
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fleming & Associates | R+3.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+7.0 | 16.5 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-29 | 593 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2002-10-28 | 401 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 593 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2002-10-20 | 418 | D+7.0 | 17 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-15 | 593 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-24 | 593 | D+4.0 | 14 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2002-09-14 | 405 | D+14.0 | 24 |