Actual result
R+2.5
Final polls said
D+8.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+10.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-31 | 625 | D+10.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-24 | 625 | D+7.0 | 10 |