Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
R+12.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+12.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-22 | 361 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2002-10-19 | 600 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| Grove Insight | 2002-09-24 | 400 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-15 | 300 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2002-09-13 | 803 | EVEN | 4 |