Actual result
R+21.2
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+15.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+2.0 | 19.2 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-16 | 400 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| PSB Research | 2002-10-12 | 400 | R+2.0 | 19 |