Actual result
R+12.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+5.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data West Polling | D+4.0 | 16.5 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2002-10-30 | 280 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-28 | 300 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Data West Polling | 2002-10-26 | 312 | D+4.0 | 17 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2002-10-09 | 300 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-25 | 442 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2002-09-10 | 300 | EVEN | 13 |