Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
D+3.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dan Jones & Associates | D+6.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Moore Information Group | D+8.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2002-10-27 | 515 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Tarrance Group | 2002-10-23 | 300 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Moore Information Group | 2002-09-24 | 300 | D+8.0 | 7 |