Actual result
D+10.4
Final polls said
D+17.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | D+9.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+4.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gazette Communications | D+22.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2002-10-31 | 807 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Gazette Communications | 2002-10-29 | 1082 | D+22.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-28 | 605 | D+22.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-21 | 605 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-07 | 679 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2002-09-23 | 807 | D+20.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-18 | 400 | D+4.0 | 6 |