Actual result
D+22.7
Final polls said
D+30.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | D+30.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+30.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-11-01 | 500 | D+30.0 | 7 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-10-29 | 500 | D+32.0 | 9 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2002-10-29 | 600 | D+30.0 | 7 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2002-10-22 | 679 | D+34.0 | 11 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2002-10-15 | 679 | D+26.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-10-14 | 679 | D+27.0 | 4 |