Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
D+2.5
7 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+0.2 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | D+5.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-11-03 | 679 | D+0.2 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 600 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 600 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2002-10-31 | 929 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-31 | 625 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2002-10-28 | 929 | D+8.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |