Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
R+5.1
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ethridge & Associates LLC | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 525 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 525 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Ethridge & Associates LLC | 2002-10-29 | 560 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-29 | 611 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-10-28 | 679 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-28 | 625 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 611 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-10-22 | 603 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-13 | 625 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-08 | 679 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-10-07 | 679 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-17 | 525 | R+23.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-13 | 625 | R+14.0 | 5 |