Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+9.7
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | West Chester University | D+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+9.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mellman Group | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | A&A Research | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+13.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Gannett New Jersey | D+5.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 527 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 679 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Gannett New Jersey | 2002-11-01 | 611 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2002-10-31 | 921 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-31 | 574 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2002-10-30 | 679 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2002-10-29 | 458 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-28 | 732 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 800 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-21 | 679 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2002-10-21 | 746 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| West Chester University | 2002-10-18 | 404 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-18 | 603 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2002-10-15 | 679 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2002-10-12 | 679 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 679 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-09 | 679 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2002-10-05 | 679 | EVEN | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-04 | 679 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-04 | 514 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| A&A Research | 2002-10-04 | 679 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2002-10-03 | 400 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2002-09-22 | 547 | R+13.0 | 23 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2002-09-05 | 679 | R+5.0 | 15 |