Actual result
R+10.2
Final polls said
R+9.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+12.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+8.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+17.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-02 | 764 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-28 | 625 | R+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-26 | 764 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-19 | 764 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-15 | 625 | R+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-12 | 764 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-09 | 500 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-09-18 | 600 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-14 | 764 | R+2.0 | 8 |