Actual result
R+9.9
Final polls said
R+9.3
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ethridge & Associates LLC | R+9.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Tennessee | R+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+13.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mellman Group | R+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | North Star Opinion Research | R+16.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-27 | 726 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 625 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| Ethridge & Associates LLC | 2002-10-20 | 819 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-20 | 726 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Mellman Group | 2002-10-19 | 600 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2002-10-16 | 600 | R+16.0 | 6 |
| University of Tennessee | 2002-10-10 | 504 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2002-10-08 | 679 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-07 | 500 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-06 | 726 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2002-10-02 | 600 | R+19.0 | 9 |
| Mellman Group | 2002-10-01 | 600 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-18 | 625 | R+19.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-16 | 500 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-09-09 | 600 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| University of Tennessee | 2002-09-07 | 504 | R+18.0 | 8 |