Actual result
R+12.0
Final polls said
R+5.1
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blum & Weprin Associates | R+9.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scripps Howard | R+9.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rice University | R+6.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+4.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+2.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | D+1.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | FM3 Research | D+1.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 602 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 600 | EVEN | 12 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-11-01 | 550 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-31 | 683 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2002-10-31 | 1002 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Rice University | 2002-10-27 | 656 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-24 | 550 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 683 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Scripps Howard | 2002-10-18 | 795 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| FM3 Research | 2002-10-18 | 900 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-17 | 550 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2002-10-16 | 600 | R+2.0 | 10 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2002-10-15 | 679 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| FM3 Research | 2002-10-15 | 679 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-15 | 683 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-10 | 550 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-03 | 550 | R+26.0 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-01 | 683 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| FM3 Research | 2002-09-23 | 900 | D+4.0 | 16 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-17 | 602 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Rice University | 2002-09-09 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 6 |