Texas Governor
Greg Abbott (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Texas Governor race — about a 86% chance, winning by about 5 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 30 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 30 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+5.0 — a 86% Republican win.
Latest news
Greg Abbott Gets Good Sign After Double Texas Polling BlowTexas Governor Greg Abbott got some welcome news on Thursday in his reelection bid after two recent polls showed his Democratic challenger narrowly ahead. A UMass Lowell/YouGov survey of 850 likely Texas voters found Abbott leading Democratic state Representa…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Greg Abbott Touts $4,000 Savings as Race Flips With PollstersTexas Governor Greg Abbott is making affordability a central part of his closing pitch to voters, touting his "most detailed plan" to save some households thousands of dollars during an interview with KBTX, as polls show his race against Democrat Gina Hinojos…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Trump faces protests while rallying support for Paxton in Texas Senate raceSAN ANTONIO (AP) — President Donald Trump, facing protesters and a poor political climate, fought to rally Texas voters behind Senate candidate Ken Paxton on Wednesday night in a bid to stave off sweeping Democratic victories in the nation's most populous red…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Gina Hinojosa Chance of Beating Greg Abbott Flips With PollstersAs much of the attention in Texas this fall has focused on the U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, another statewide contest has been tightening under the radar: Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a record fourth term. A ne…
Biztoc.com · October 7, 2026
Is This the Oddest Democrat in Congress?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has made quite the reputation for herself …
The New Republic · October 7, 2026
- Greg Abbott Gets Good Sign After Double Texas Polling Blow
Texas Governor Greg Abbott got some welcome news on Thursday in his reelection bid after two recent polls showed his Democratic challenger narrowly ahead. A UMass Lowell/YouGov survey of 850 likely Texas voters found Abbott leading Democratic state Representa…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - Greg Abbott Touts $4,000 Savings as Race Flips With Pollsters
Texas Governor Greg Abbott is making affordability a central part of his closing pitch to voters, touting his "most detailed plan" to save some households thousands of dollars during an interview with KBTX, as polls show his race against Democrat Gina Hinojos…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - Trump faces protests while rallying support for Paxton in Texas Senate race
SAN ANTONIO (AP) — President Donald Trump, facing protesters and a poor political climate, fought to rally Texas voters behind Senate candidate Ken Paxton on Wednesday night in a bid to stave off sweeping Democratic victories in the nation's most populous red…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday 
Trump ‘pretty sore’ over GOP snubs as he insists his rallies are saving party: analysisPresident Donald Trump insists he’s saving Republicans with his rallies — and he appears increasingly bothered that many don’t want to campaign with him, according to CNN’s Aaron Blake.Republicans in tough races have kept their distance from the president as …
Raw Story · October 7, 2026- Gina Hinojosa Chance of Beating Greg Abbott Flips With Pollsters
As much of the attention in Texas this fall has focused on the U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, another statewide contest has been tightening under the radar: Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a record fourth term. A ne…
Biztoc.com · October 7, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
30 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Greg Abbott (R), with roughly a 86% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+5.0.
What do the polls say in the Texas Governor race?
There are 30 polls of this race. The most recent, from YouGov (2026-10-05), showed D+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+5.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Governor race?
Gina Hinojosa is the Democratic candidate; Greg Abbott is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Texas Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Greg Abbott's (R) lead has widened to 86%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.