Texas Governor
Greg Abbott (R) is favored to win the 2026 Texas Governor race — about a 78% chance, winning by about 8 points in the projection. Updated daily from 29 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 29 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+8.1 — a 78% Republican win.
Latest news
Why Democrats Must Embrace a “Mom Populist” Education AgendaPease Elementary in downtown Austin, Texas, has sat empty since 2020. Formerly the oldest continuously operating school in Texas, Pease was shuttered by the Austin Independent School District to save money. On a steamy day this summer, the hulking structure p…
The New Republic · Today
'Basically auditing himself' Dem opponent Gina Hinojosa calls out Greg Abbott on data centersDemocratic Texas Gov. candidate Gina Hinojosa reacted this weekend to Gov. Greg Abbott announcing he's auditing data centers ...
Biztoc.com · August 19, 2026
Democrats Within Striking Distance of Defeating GOP to Flip Texas—New PollRepublicans' decadeslong hold on Texas statewide offices will be tested this November, with the Senate race between GOP nominee Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico in a deadlock and a close governors race between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Governor Greg Ab…
Biztoc.com · August 13, 2026
'Devastating to Watch': Texas Democrats Condemn Destruction of Big Bend for Trump Border WallThe arrival of bulldozers at Big Bend National Park along the US-Mexico border in Texas to clear native vegetation for an access road for President Donald Trump's border wall was more than enough to send outrage through the state Democratic Party and advocacy…
Common Dreams · August 10, 2026
Texas: Latest Poll Shows Democrats SurgingThe Texas Pulse Poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in the US Senate race, Gina Hinojosa only one point behind Governor Greg Abbott, and Vicki Goodwin leading in the crucial race for Lieutenant Governor. If this trend continues, Texas could flip blue…
Dianeravitch.net · August 10, 2026
Greg Abbott turned from data center ‘epicenter’ booster to skeptic—and Trump is calling it an economic ‘mistake’The political data-center backlash is gathering steam — and turning bipartisan, as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott delivered his sharpest rebuke yet of the artificial-intelligence data center industry on Sunday. “They basically dug their own grave for the problem that…
Biztoc.com · Today
Texas Governor Floats Prosecution Of Airports Over Muslim Foot-Washing FountainsTexas Governor Floats Prosecution Of Airports Over Muslim Foot-Washing Fountains Authored by Jeremy Lott via The Epoch Times, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, made his second push in two weeks to halt the Muslim foot washing facilities at his state's a…
Biztoc.com · Today
Texas Gov. Abbott Dodges Hard When ABC’s Karl Tries to Get Him to Grade Trump on the EconomyTexas Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) dodged hard when ABC News's Jon Karl repeatedly pressed him to grade President Donald Trump on the economy. The post Texas Gov. Abbott Dodges Hard When ABC’s Karl Tries to Get Him to Grade Trump on the Economy first appeared on M…
Mediaite · Yesterday
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says data centers deserve the backlash they're getting: 'They basically dug their own grave'Gov. Greg Abbott introduced new standards around data centers in Texas after community backlash. Brandon Bell/Getty Images Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said the backlash data centers are getting from Americans is deserved. Abbott, who earlier supported data center …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says data centers deserve the backlash they're getting: 'They basically dug their own grave'
Gov. Greg Abbott initially supported expanding AI data center infrastructure in Texas, but backlash from local residents caused him to change course.
Business Insider · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
29 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Greg Abbott (R), with roughly a 78% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+8.1.
What do the polls say in the Texas Governor race?
There are 29 polls of this race. The most recent, from Emerson College (2026-08-10), showed R+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+8.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Governor race?
Gina Hinojosa is the Democratic candidate; Greg Abbott is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.