Texas Governor
Greg Abbott (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Texas Governor race — about a 86% chance, winning by about 5 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 27 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 27 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+5.0 — a 86% Republican win.
Latest news
Ken Paxton stuns with poison arrow aimed at fellow Republican in newly leaked audioTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton privately told donors that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is in trouble in his re-election race, according to newly leaked audio obtained by Rolling Stone.“Yes, Abbott is struggling,” Paxton told an attendee at a small Washingto…
Raw Story · Yesterday
James Talarico Holds Slim Lead in TexasA new Marist poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%. Texas Senate Race James Talarico (D) 47% Ken Paxton (R) 45% Marist poll · likely voters · ±4.9% The same poll in Texas finds Greg Abbott (R) le…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
'People are big mad in Texas': Hinojosa challenges Abbott's data center policiesGina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, discussed her stance on data centers during a press conference in Dallas on Tuesday.
FOX 4 News · October 13, 2026
Greg Abbott's Chances of Beating Gina Hinojosa Flip in New Texas PollTexas Governor Greg Abbott has moved narrowly ahead of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in a new poll, reversing last month’s result as the race enters its final weeks. The ReconMR survey found that 48 percent of likely Texas voters would support Abbott, a…
Biztoc.com · October 13, 2026- Republicans stay bullish on Texas governor’s race, but two key groups present challenges - NBC News
Republicans stay bullish on Texas governor’s race, but two key groups present challengesNBC News Opinion | Republicans Are Worried About Gina Hinojosa. In Texas, I Saw Why.The New York Times ‘A Latino problem’: National Democrats clash with Andy Beshear over …
Slashdot.org · October 11, 2026
Ken Paxton Claims Greg Abbot Is 'Struggling' to Get Reelected in Latest Leaked Audio Featuring RepublicanTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a newly leaked audio recording that Gov. Greg Abbott is 'struggling' in his reelection bid.
Radaronline.com · Yesterday
Greg Abbott Is 'Struggling' Ken Paxton Warns: What Texas Polls ShowTexas Governor Greg Abbott's reelection campaign took a new blow on Wednesday after leaked audio captured Ken Paxton, the state's Republican attorney general and U.S. Senate nominee, telling donors that the governor is "struggling," as polls show a much close…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Ken Paxton Admits Greg Abbott’s Reelection Bid ‘Struggling’ in New Leaked Audio ClipTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has been heard warning that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is "struggling" in his bid for reelection in yet another leaked audio clip of the embattled U.S. Senate hopeful. The post Ken Paxton Admits Greg Abbott’s Reelection Bid ‘Stru…
Mediaite · Yesterday- Ken Paxton stuns with poison arrow aimed at fellow Republican in newly leaked audio
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton privately told donors that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is in trouble in his re-election race, according to newly leaked audio obtained by Rolling Stone.“Yes, Abbott is struggling,” Paxton told an attendee at a small Washingto…
Raw Story · Yesterday 
Ken Paxton in New Leaked Audio“Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton warned that Governor Greg Abbott is struggling in his bid for reelection, made excuses for his own campaign issues, and conceded that Republicans will likely lose seats in the state legislature,” Rolling Stone reports. Said …
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Greg Abbott (R), with roughly a 86% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+5.0.
What do the polls say in the Texas Governor race?
There are 27 polls of this race. The most recent, from ReconMR/Siena University (2026-10-08), showed R+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+5.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Governor race?
Gina Hinojosa is the Democratic candidate; Greg Abbott is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Texas Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Greg Abbott's (R) lead has widened to 86%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.