Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 23 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.9 — a 81% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Gina Hinojosa Vows to Send $1500 to Every Texas HouseholdTexas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa has promised to send $1,500 payments to every household if elected, framing the proposal as state-funded economic relief from the state’s multibillion-dollar surplus. More than 11 million Texas households…
Biztoc.com · July 8, 2026
Texas Governor Candidates Start Over Corpus Christi Water WoesCorpus Christi’s impending water crisis — and delayed action by city leaders — has become an issue in the race for Texas governor, with Gov. Greg Abbott threatening a state takeover of the city and his Democratic opponent, Gina Hinojosa, …
Insurance Journal · June 11, 2026- James Talarico’s Taco Order Sparks Debate in Texas Senate Race - The New York Times
James Talarico’s Taco Order Sparks Debate in Texas Senate RaceThe New York Times Barack Obama appears with James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa at Austin restaurantThe Texas Tribune Former President Barack Obama visits Austin with James Talarico, Gina HinojosaKXA…
Slashdot.org · May 15, 2026 
Hinojosa on voting rights, Abbott on health in Texas governor's raceGov. Greg Abbott discussed healthcare funding, while Gina Hinojosa talked about voting rights in the 2026 Texas governor's race.
El Paso Times · April 30, 2026- Gov. Abbott projected to face Gina Hinojosa in November midterm
The general election is Nov. 3; Early voting for the general election is scheduled for Oct. 19 through Oct. 30.Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to face Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in the midterm governor's race this fall. Hinojosa's camp …
Freerepublic.com · March 4, 2026
'Texas is a mess!' GOP strategist cackles at Ted Cruz's terrorSen. Ted Cruz's warning to Republicans that state Rep. James Talarico could claim victory in a contentious Texas race spurred uproarious laughter on MS NOW early Friday morning. Cruz's dire words on the Sean Hannity Show Wednesday night centered on Talarico's…
Raw Story · Today
Elon Musk Claims SpaceX Will Send ‘Thousands’ Of People To The Moon And Mars In Next Ten YearsTopline SpaceX Elon Musk predicted SpaceX would send humans back to the Moon and Mars in the next five years and build permanent cities on the lunar surface in the next ten years—offering wildly optimistic targets for space travel in a recent interview with T…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Abbott Calls for Ban on AI Data Centers in Rural Texas NeighborhoodsGov. Greg Abbott is calling for new AI data centers to be blocked from development in rural neighborhoods across Texas amid growing backlash over their effects on residential communities and water supplies. During a property tax event in Bullard, a rural comm…
Daily Signal · July 8, 2026- Abbott orders probe after Texas hospital advertises 'birth packages' in Mexico: 'Citizenship is not for sale'
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered an investigation into a Texas hospital Tuesday after it confirmed to Fox News that it advertised Spanish-language "Birth Packages in South Texas" on billboards in Mexico promoting childbirth services to pregnant foreign national…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2026 
Abbott Investigates Hospital Over Mexico Billboards Promoting Birth Tourism Packages In TexasRepublican Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered an investigation into a South Texas hospital over billboards in Mexico advertising birth tourism packages.
The Daily Caller · July 8, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | 656 | R+7.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[71] | 2026-06-27 | 656 | R+7.0 |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-06-21 | 800 | R+10.7 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 2026-06-12 | 1200 | R+7.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[73] | 2026-06-12 | 1200 | R+7.0 |
| Quantus Insights[74] | 2026-06-04 | 800 | R+8.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-06-04 | 807 | R+5.0 |
| Texas A&M University /ReconMR | 2026-06-04 | 807 | R+6.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-05-28 | 1670 | R+5.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-05-28 | 1670 | R+5.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-23 | 643 | R+4.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-05-06 | 1223 | R+6.0 |
| Texas Southern University / YouGov | 2026-05-05 | 1223 | R+6.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-04-20 | 1018 | R+5.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-04-20 | 1200 | R+6.0 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 2026-04-20 | 1200 | R+6.0 |
| UT Tyler[55] | 2026-02-22 | 1117 | R+8.0 |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 2026-02-22 | 1117 | R+8.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[81] | 2026-02-16 | 1300 | R+10.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-02-03 | 1000 | R+3.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | 1502 | R+7.0 |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | 1502 | R+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-12 | 1165 | R+7.9 |