Actual result
R+7.7
Final polls said
R+7.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.1 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | R+6.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory | R+6.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 589 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-28 | 1002 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory | 2004-10-18 | 421 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 602 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 587 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-01 | 1002 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 587 | R+12.0 | 4 |