Actual result
D+2.1
Final polls said
R+1.0
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.6 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+1.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | R+2.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+9.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Becker Institute | D+10.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-30 | 957 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-27 | 617 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-26 | 758 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-20 | 617 | EVEN | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2004-10-16 | 400 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-03 | 617 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Becker Institute | 2004-10-02 | 397 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-09-30 | 957 | EVEN | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-16 | 600 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-15 | 500 | D+9.0 | 7 |