Actual result
EVEN
Final polls said
D+2.8
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.4
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+6.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+7.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 620 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 800 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 618 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 634 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Elway Research | 2004-10-15 | 405 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 620 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 620 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2004-09-19 | 406 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Elway Research | 2004-09-18 | 405 | D+11.0 | 11 |