Actual result
R+8.1
Final polls said
R+11.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+13.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victoria Research & Consulting | EVEN | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-27 | 357 | R+18.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 442 | R+17.0 | 9 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2004-10-17 | 400 | EVEN | 8 |