Actual result
R+9.8
Final polls said
D+1.6
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.1 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Feldman Group | D+1.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | University of North Carolina School of Journalism and Mass Communication | D+2.3 | 12.1 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feldman Group | 2004-10-20 | 500 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| University of North Carolina School of Journalism and Mass Communication | 2004-10-16 | 493 | D+2.3 | 12 |
| Feldman Group | 2004-10-06 | 500 | R+2.0 | 8 |