Actual result
R+8.9
Final polls said
R+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+8.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.1 | 2.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2004-10-28 | 568 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2004-10-03 | 300 | R+1.0 | 8 |