Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+12.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+10.9 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2004-10-28 | 289 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2004-10-03 | 301 | R+8.0 | 12 |