Actual result
D+20.2
Final polls said
D+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+20.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+12.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+11.6 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2004-10-14 | 320 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-09-03 | 431 | D+20.0 | 0 |