Actual result
R+25.6
Final polls said
R+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital Survey Research Center | R+24.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of South Alabama Polling Group | R+37.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+14.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+11.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-26 | 636 | R+18.0 | 8 |
| Capital Survey Research Center | 2004-10-13 | 546 | R+24.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-02 | 600 | R+28.0 | 2 |
| University of South Alabama Polling Group | 2004-09-29 | 519 | R+37.0 | 11 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | R+14.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-09 | 416 | R+11.0 | 15 |