Actual result
D+7.6
Final polls said
D+8.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Chester University | D+7.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+9.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Chester University | 2004-09-24 | 590 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-14 | 600 | D+9.0 | 1 |