Actual result
R+16.6
Final polls said
R+13.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+14.1 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+11.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+11.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+10.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 628 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 501 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 609 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-14 | 503 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-07 | 501 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-06 | 594 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-15 | 400 | R+11.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-14 | 658 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-12 | 600 | R+11.0 | 6 |