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Toss-up · 2004 President
Hawaii President
In the 2004 Hawaii President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+10.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ward Research | EVEN | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | SMS Research & Marketing Services | R+1.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SMS Research & Marketing Services2004-10-1910
Ward Research2004-10-159
American Research Group2004-09-091
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Hawaii President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 8.7 points (D+8.7).
When was the 2004 Hawaii President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.