Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+10.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ward Research | EVEN | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.4 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | SMS Research & Marketing Services | R+1.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMS Research & Marketing Services | 2004-10-19 | 612 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| Ward Research | 2004-10-15 | 600 | EVEN | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-09 | 600 | D+10.0 | 1 |