Actual result
D+10.3
Final polls said
D+10.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Richard Day Research | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+10.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Market Shares Corp. | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2004-10-30 | 1200 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 665 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-18 | 700 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Richard Day Research | 2004-10-17 | 828 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 644 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-04 | 500 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-09-19 | 700 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-13 | 618 | D+4.0 | 6 |