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Toss-up · 2004 President
Illinois President
In the 2004 Illinois President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.3
Final polls said
D+10.0
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Richard Day Research | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2004-10-300
SurveyUSA2004-10-282
Market Shares Corp.2004-10-182
Richard Day Research2004-10-170
SurveyUSA2004-10-056
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Illinois President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 10.3 points (D+10.3).
When was the 2004 Illinois President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.