Actual result
R+20.7
Final polls said
R+20.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+21.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+20.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+19.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+15.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-28 | 1002 | R+20.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 589 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 602 | R+22.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 589 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-01 | 957 | R+28.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-18 | 600 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 692 | R+24.0 | 3 |