Actual result
R+19.9
Final polls said
R+20.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+20.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+21.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+18.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+17.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 636 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-10-19 | 690 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 629 | R+22.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 622 | R+19.0 | 1 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-09-12 | 657 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-10 | 600 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 665 | R+17.0 | 3 |