Actual result
R+14.5
Final polls said
R+16.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Research Insight | R+15.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+18.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+18.3 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | R+9.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+8.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+8.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | R+26.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | 2004-10-19 | 637 | R+26.0 | 11 |
| Market Research Insight | 2004-10-18 | 600 | R+15.0 | 0 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2004-10-17 | 700 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | 2004-10-14 | 600 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2004-10-12 | 600 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Market Research Insight | 2004-10-06 | 600 | R+15.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-19 | 600 | R+8.0 | 7 |