Actual result
D+9.0
Final polls said
D+8.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+5.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+4.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Myers Research & Strategic Services | D+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Digital Research | D+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 1008 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-20 | 402 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 660 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 653 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Myers Research & Strategic Services | 2004-09-25 | 400 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 636 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| Digital Research | 2004-09-16 | 600 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-09 | 400 | EVEN | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-09 | 600 | D+4.0 | 5 |