Actual result
R+20.5
Final polls said
R+21.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+21.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Billings | R+21.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+23.1 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+28.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-19 | 625 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2004-10-09 | 411 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-21 | 625 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-08 | 600 | R+28.0 | 8 |