Actual result
R+27.4
Final polls said
R+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+29.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+24.3 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | R+20.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | 2004-10-18 | 623 | R+20.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-11 | 600 | R+29.0 | 2 |