Actual result
R+33.2
Final polls said
R+29.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+30.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+31.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+30.5 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | MSR Group | R+29.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | R+29.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSR Group | 2004-10-19 | 754 | R+29.0 | 4 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2004-10-17 | 1007 | R+29.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-11 | 600 | R+31.0 | 2 |