Actual result
D+6.7
Final polls said
D+7.3
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+7.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-29 | 984 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 794 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2004-10-28 | 740 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2004-10-25 | 549 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-23 | 852 | EVEN | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-23 | 400 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2004-10-17 | 503 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 703 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-16 | 786 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2004-10-16 | 661 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2004-10-11 | 508 | EVEN | 7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2004-10-09 | 500 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-03 | 400 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2004-10-03 | 500 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2004-10-03 | 576 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-03 | 819 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-02 | 696 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2004-09-25 | 489 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-18 | 672 | EVEN | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-18 | 400 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-13 | 734 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2004-09-05 | 639 | D+2.0 | 5 |