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Toss-up · 2004 President
New Jersey President
In the 2004 New Jersey President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.7
Final polls said
D+7.3
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+7.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Quinnipiac University2004-10-292
SurveyUSA2004-10-285
Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling2004-10-283
Fairleigh Dickinson University2004-10-250
Quinnipiac University2004-10-237
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 New Jersey President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 6.7 points (D+6.7).
When was the 2004 New Jersey President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.