Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
R+4.7
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Belden Russonello | R+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+1.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gallup | R+9.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 636 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 800 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 535 | EVEN | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 603 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 600 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-23 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-10-19 | 504 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Belden Russonello | 2004-10-18 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 585 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 516 | R+3.9 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 519 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-02 | 625 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Belden Russonello | 2004-09-24 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-20 | 535 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 499 | R+2.2 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-14 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 625 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-13 | 600 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-12 | 526 | R+4.0 | 1 |