Actual result
R+31.1
Final polls said
R+30.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+30.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | WPA Intelligence | R+33.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Basswood Research | R+33.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+28.8 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+34.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+28.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | R+17.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 662 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2004-10-25 | 500 | R+28.0 | 3 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-23 | 500 | R+33.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 627 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-16 | 500 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2004-10-10 | 500 | R+34.0 | 3 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-09 | 500 | R+12.0 | 19 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 613 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-02 | 500 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-29 | 500 | R+34.0 | 3 |
| Basswood Research | 2004-09-27 | 500 | R+33.0 | 2 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-25 | 500 | R+26.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 617 | R+31.0 | 0 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-18 | 500 | R+40.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-17 | 600 | R+17.0 | 14 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-11 | 500 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| Basswood Research | 2004-09-09 | 500 | R+31.0 | 0 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-03 | 500 | R+31.0 | 0 |