Actual result
D+4.2
Final polls said
D+5.9
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+5.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | DHM Research | D+6.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Moore Information Group | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gallup | D+8.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+10.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Riley Research Associates | R+5.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 1125 | D+10.1 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-26 | 687 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-26 | 600 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| DHM Research | 2004-10-26 | 608 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Moore Information Group | 2004-10-25 | 450 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-17 | 700 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 890 | D+13.1 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-12 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2004-10-11 | 400 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-11 | 600 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-10 | 628 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 925 | D+10.1 | 6 |
| DHM Research | 2004-09-26 | 624 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 747 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 809 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 625 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-14 | 500 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-12 | 600 | D+2.0 | 2 |