Actual result
D+20.8
Final polls said
D+13.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+17.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+28.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-26 | 594 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-10 | 603 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-19 | 705 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-12 | 600 | D+28.0 | 7 |