Actual result
R+12.9
Final polls said
R+5.1
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+6.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+4.5 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | EVEN | 12.9 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 584 | R+4.5 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 501 | R+2.8 | 10 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-13 | 600 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 501 | R+6.1 | 7 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-19 | 619 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-16 | 500 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 528 | R+12.4 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | EVEN | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 625 | R+1.0 | 12 |