Actual result
D+34.2
Final polls said
D+45.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+47.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+45.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+47.2 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-27 | 723 | D+45.0 | 11 |