Actual result
R+17.9
Final polls said
R+15.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.9 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+16.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | R+13.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 624 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 501 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 604 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-14 | 501 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-07 | 501 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-06 | 584 | R+22.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-06 | 500 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-14 | 653 | R+25.0 | 7 |