Actual result
R+42.3
Final polls said
R+44.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+41.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+41.1 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | R+46.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Opinion Dynamics | R+47.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 602 | R+46.0 | 4 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | R+47.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+41.0 | 1 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 700 | R+40.0 | 2 |