← all past elections
Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2004 Illinois Senate race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 43 points.
Actual result
D+42.9
Final polls said
D+45.5
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+44.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victory Research | D+46.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+39.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | D+47.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Richard Day Research | D+50.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2004-10-303
SurveyUSA2004-10-284
Market Shares Corp.2004-10-184
Richard Day Research2004-10-177
SurveyUSA2004-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Illinois Senate race?
Barack Obama (D) won, by about 42.9 points (D+42.9).
When was the 2004 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.