Actual result
D+42.9
Final polls said
D+45.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+45.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+44.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+45.4 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victory Research | D+46.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+39.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | D+47.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Richard Day Research | D+50.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2004-10-30 | 1200 | D+46.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 655 | D+39.0 | 4 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-18 | 700 | D+47.0 | 4 |
| Richard Day Research | 2004-10-17 | 828 | D+50.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 636 | D+45.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-05 | 500 | D+44.0 | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-09-19 | 700 | D+51.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-13 | 608 | D+41.0 | 2 |