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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2004 Illinois Senate race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 43 points.
Actual result
D+42.9
Final polls said
D+45.5
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+44.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victory Research | D+46.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+39.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | D+47.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Richard Day Research | D+50.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2004-10-303
SurveyUSA2004-10-284
Market Shares Corp.2004-10-184
Richard Day Research2004-10-177
SurveyUSA2004-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Illinois Senate race?
Barack Obama (D) won, by about 42.9 points (D+42.9).
When was the 2004 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.